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News & Views on Indian Real Estate

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Recession or Recess of Real Estate Market?


Real Estate industry is talking on correction period all over India. Brokers, especially, are absolutely convinced that the market is set to fall. In many areas the property rates have already started falling. Accordingly, Goregaon, Malad, Mira Road, Vasai and Virar on western suburbs and Mulund, Bhandup, Kurla, Chembur and Govandi on central side have started stagnating the level of property prices.

Pune, Nashik, Noida, Jaipur, Bangalore, Chennai and Hyderabad are also feeling the cold wave in the property market. Reason for the same is related with hike in housing finance interest rates and unaffordable property rates.

Investors are, now, not buying and have stopped going in for more investments. Commercial stock is in the market for anything above the cost of investment. Practically, when no one buys, rates are stagnated at some particular point. That is what is happening today. The sale price has stopped further climbing up since there are no takers. Malls are worst hit. The recession started with them, while the exhibiting rates were much less then the actual investments made. Cash and Cheque portion of mall space deals are known to everyone in the trade. The market for commercial properties has already been started to correct its baseless pricing.

It may be a recess. For the time being, investors want market to show its actual colour. And after they sell off certain non moving stock, buying spree may start again afresh. It is also linked with the liquidity crunch in the economy and falling stock exchanges in the country. A lobby of investors does not want share market money to go easily from the real estate market. People who have invested in real estate from earning of share market wants an exit to pay off the liabilities created by them in the share market. Player in real estate market wants the rates to stop climbing up for some time so that they can capitalize on such panic sale. Big game plan is on the hands of few groups of individuals and few finance companies that have entered recently in the trade.

Builders, today, have already started to reduce its price everywhere in the country. Ready stock is still not available as the builders have already sold 30 to 50 % of his stock during under construction to investors. As the Investors want handsome returns on the finished stock while they do not sale in the open market but through the builder only. That stock again sold by the builders to the actual buyers by mounting another profit margin. Hence when the actual user buys the property, he has to pay investor´s hidden margins which change hands five times during the time of construction.

It is nothing but a recess for the players. The rates may go up by the second quarter of the next year 2009. Builders have holding capacity since the project is financed by venture fund people and Mutual funds are searching for the projects. The sale price will be certainly include the interest rates or Return on investment money (22% to 25% of total project). Land and FSI cost is higher and purchasing is already finished for the second rally of property market boom.

As in current market, liquidity has reduced and the funding by the PE firms or Mutual funds has mostly stopped and hence, the construction & launching of the project has just held up or been delayed by one to two quarters some time a year as well.

So in view of current market scenario, we can easily understand that the Real Estate market has effected very much with the recession of Economy.

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